The National Hurricane Center on Sunday updated its outlook, indicating that the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are expected to move toward the Gulf of Mexico throughout the week. Simultaneously, a second weather system is heading toward the northwestern part of the Gulf. Forecasters have increased the probability that both systems could develop into tropical storms or depressions as they traverse the region.
Dolly Remnants Track Westward
According to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. outlook, what was once Tropical Storm Dolly is now a strong tropical wave producing showers and thunderstorms across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite data and surface observations indicate no closed surface circulation at this time.
Forecasters stated that redevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two as the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at approximately 25 mph. However, conditions may become more conducive for development by midweek as the system approaches Florida and enters the Gulf. The center has assigned a 20% chance of development within the next seven days.
Second System Monitored in Northern Gulf
A separate low-pressure area is being tracked approximately 125 miles south of the southeastern Louisiana coast. Satellite imagery shows this system becoming better organized since Saturday, with concentrated showers and thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center increased its forecast at 8 p.m. Sunday, raising the development probability to 70% over the next two to seven days.
Forecasters note that a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before this system reaches the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday night. Regardless of whether it develops into a named storm, locally heavy rainfall is possible along these coastal areas in the coming days, as this newspaper reported in Florida Braces for Peak Hurricane Season as Dolly Lurks in Atlantic Basin.
Seasonal Context and 2026 Forecasts
The next name on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane list following Dolly is Edouard. The season began June 1 and runs through November 30, with peak activity typically occurring from mid-August to mid-October. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its seasonal forecast earlier this month, predicting between seven and 13 named storms for the year.
Of those predicted systems, two to six are expected to become hurricanes, with at most two potentially reaching major hurricane status. This projection indicates a lower-than-average storm generation compared to historical averages, which typically see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes per season.
