The National Hurricane Center on Thursday continued to track a system approaching the state of Florida with potential to become the season’s next tropical depression or storm. In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook issued July 16, 2026, forecasters indicated that an area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf. The center has assigned this system a 20% chance of development within the next seven days as it moves slowly northeastward.
Moisture and Rain Chances Rising
While the tropical cyclone potential remains low, local weather impacts are already being felt across the region. The National Weather Service in Melbourne reported that a trough will form over the weekend across the Florida peninsula. A surface high pressure system is pushing south of Central Florida, bringing west to southwest winds and increasing moisture from the Gulf.
"Locally, regardless of tropical development or not, moisture will increase across east central Florida thanks to the surface low," forecasters stated in their discussion. "Rain and storm chances have continued to trend upward, generally ranging between 40-70% through this weekend and into the middle of next week."
Atlantic Systems Also Monitored
In addition to the Gulf system, the National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This system currently features disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Forecasters note that some slow development is possible during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at approximately 10 mph.
However, conditions are expected to become less conducive for further growth by this weekend. Consequently, forecasters do not expect significant development from this Atlantic wave and have assigned it only a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two to seven days.
Season Context and Outlook
The 2026 hurricane season officially began on June 1 and runs through November 30. So far, there has been just one named system: Tropical Storm Arthur, which developed in the Gulf and brought floods to Texas and Louisiana in June. The next names on the list are Bertha and Cristobal.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects this season to be below normal. Their official forecast released in late May calls for 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 would become hurricanes. Of those, 1-3 would reach Category 3 status or higher as major hurricanes. An average hurricane season typically features 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
