A new public opinion poll released July 20 by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida indicates that general election races for a U.S. Senate seat and governor in Florida are "notably closer" than recent cycles, though Republican candidates maintain slight leads. The survey highlights shifting dynamics among likely midterm voters as the November 3 election approaches, with early voting scheduled to begin in late October.
Senate Race Dynamics
In the U.S. Senate contest against incumbent Ashley Moody, Democratic candidate Angie Nixon holds a narrow lead at 42% support compared to Alex Vindman’s 40%. This margin falls within the poll's error rate of 3.8 percentage points. Moody remains ahead with 50% approval among likely voters. The number of undecided voters in this matchup has decreased significantly, dropping from double digits to just 7%, suggesting a consolidation of support as Election Day nears.
Dr. Sean Freeder, PORL’s faculty director, noted that while Nixon may have gained traction following her May sit-in protest and subsequent arrest, both Democratic candidates perform similarly among voters. This suggests internal party debates over ideological direction are not yet significantly impacting voter behavior in the general election context, more details at Orlando Ledger.
Gubernatorial Contest Tightens
The race for governor also shows increased competitiveness. Republican Byron Donalds leads presumptive Democrat David Jolly by five percentage points (46% to 41%), with 6% undecided. This represents a one-point tightening compared to the March poll, where Jolly trailed by six points and undecided voters stood at 17%. That figure has now been cut in half.
Jolly faces scrutiny regarding past ties to businessman Leo Govoni, who is charged with stealing over $100 million from a special needs trust fund. Jolly worked for one of Govoni’s companies more than a decade ago and received campaign support from him but has denied knowledge or involvement in the alleged fraud, according to El Comercio.
Approval Ratings and Voter Registration
The poll also assessed job approval ratings, showing Governor Ron DeSantis at 57% approval with 41% disapproval. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio holds a 56% approval rating against 42% disapproval. Both figures are above the 50% threshold.
Despite these numbers, Florida remains politically red overall. As of June 30, state Division of Elections records show approximately 5.5 million registered Republicans, roughly 4 million Democrats, and 3.8 million voters with no party affiliation or third-party registration. The survey interviewed 848 likely midterm voters between July 8 and 17 using a mixed-mode design.
